German virologist: Covid-19 is less deadly than we thought
Read the full accompanying article here: https://unherd.com/thepost/german-virologist-finds-covid-fatality-rate-of-0-24-0-36/
At UnHerd, we’ve spoken to experts at both ends of the range of estimates, from Neil Ferguson (who believes the IFR to be just under 1%, perhaps 0.8-0.9%) to Johan Giesecke who maintains that it is nearer 0.1%.
This may sound like splitting hairs – they are both under one percent after all – but in reality the difference between these estimates changes everything. At the lower end, a much more laissez-faire policy becomes possible, and at 30,000 deaths it starts to look like the UK has already been through the worst of it; at the higher end, a policy of continued ultra-caution is necessary because a more relaxed approach could mean hundreds of thousands of additional deaths.
That’s why the study conducted by Professor Hendrik Streeck of the University of Bonn is so significant: a fully representative sample population within Germany was tested and examined in great detail to determine what percentage had already been infected with Covid-19.
Read the full accompanying article here: https://unherd.com/thepost/german-virologist-finds-covid-fatality-rate-of-0-24-0-36/
At UnHerd, we’ve spoken to experts at both ends of the range of estimates, from Neil Ferguson (who believes the IFR to be just under 1%, perhaps 0.8-0.9%) to Johan Giesecke who maintains that it is nearer 0.1%.
This may sound like splitting hairs – they are both under one percent after all – but in reality the difference between these estimates changes everything. At the lower end, a much more laissez-faire policy becomes possible, and at 30,000 deaths it starts to look like the UK has already been through the worst of it; at the higher end, a policy of continued ultra-caution is necessary because a more relaxed approach could mean hundreds of thousands of additional deaths.
That’s why the study conducted by Professor Hendrik Streeck of the University of Bonn is so significant: a fully representative sample population within Germany was tested and examined in great detail to determine what percentage had already been infected with Covid-19.
